Die beplanning van winkelsentrums met besondere verwysing na die bepaling van die markpotensiaal

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to analyse the planning of shopping centres with special reference to the calculation of it's market potential prior to development. A detailed theoretical analysis of the various planning aspects which are relevant in shopping centre development were therefore carried out. Subsequently two market research surveys which were conducted to determine the potential of two envisaged shopping centres were analysed in the study. Section I of the study contains a general introduction and orientation of the study. The various aspects pertaining to the planning of shopping centres are contained in Section II of the study. Firstly the development of the retail trade in various overseas countries and the factors which led to the development of shopping centres were analysed. The major factors included under the latter analysis, were population increases changed travelling and retail location patterns, increased purchasing power and ownership of motor vehicles and the decline of central business districts. Since 1960 shopping centres were developed rapidly and a structure of shopping centres emerged which enabled researchers in this field to classify shopping centres according to size into three categories, viz. the neighbourhood centre, community centre and regional centre. In the planning of shopping centres aspects such as the factors which influence the market potential of shopping centres must be analyse This include factors such as locational analysis, population, in.come and expenditure patterns, accessibility, availability of private ' and public transport facilities, competitive shopping facilities and shopping hours. All these aspects were discussed in detail in Section II of the study. The various existing methods which can be applied to calculate the market potential of shopping centres were discussed in Chapter It was emphasised that this analysis must form the foundation in shopping centre planning because it provides information to the developer which is gathered by employing scientific research methods pertaining to the retail potential and characteristics of the trade area. Once the market potential of a proposed shopping centre has been calculated , aspects such as site selection, design of the centre, letting of the shops, financing of the centre and construction, promotion and management of the centre deserve the attention of the developer and hi s planning team. These factors were discussed in depth in Chapters VII - IX. In Section III of the study the development o.f the shopping centre industry in South Africa and two case studies which were carried out to calculate the market potential of two proposed shopping centres in Benoni and Newcastle were discussed. The two case studies included in home opinion surveys carried out amongst housewives in the trade areas, a retail census to assess existing competition, estimates of presented future population and purchasing power in the trade areas and recommendations regarding the need for additional shopping facilities as deducted from the calculated market potential in both the trade areas. The retail scene in South Africa is becoming more and more competitive and it is evident that more research will have to be carried out prior to developing successful future shopping centres. In the bigger urban centres a situation of over provision of shopping facilities are emerging at present. This is to a certain extent the result of a lack of detailed research and analysis of the potential of shopping centres prior to development . Shopping centres are at present increasing in size (floor area) and it is therefore recommended tat fewer but larger sites be made available f or development. Better coordination on the intermunicipal level in providing and planning of shopping centre sites is also needed. Sites will have to b e provided after a detailed analysis of population, purchasing power and shopping habits has been caried out. In this regard a research organisation can be established to advise planners , local authorities and developers .