Specifications tests for count time series models with covariates

Abstract

We propose a goodness-of-fit test for a class of count time series models with covariates which includes the Poisson autoregressive model with covariates (PARX) as a special case. The test criteria are derived from a specific characterization for the conditional probability generating function, and the test statistic is formulated as a L2 weighting norm of the corresponding sample counterpart. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistic are provided under the null hypothesis as well as under specific alternatives. A bootstrap version of the test is explored in a Monte-Carlo study and illustrated on a real data set on road safety.