The impact of telecommunications development on the Trade-GDP nexus in South Africa: Application of the ARDL methodology

Abstract

This study investigated the relationship between telecommunications development, trade openness and economic growth in South Africa. It determined explicitly if telecommunications development and trade openness directly impact economic growth or whether telecommunications strengthen or weaken the link between trade openness and economic growth using the ARDL bounds test methodology. The findings reveal that both telecommunications developmentindicators and trade openness significantly and positively impact South Africa's GDP in the short and long terms. The study also found that control variables like internet usage and gross fixed capital formation significantly and positively influence GDP. Conversely, inflation was found to consistently affect GDP negatively and significantly. The findings from the ARDL cointegration analysis affirm a long-run economic relationship between the independent variables and GDP. The study also established that telecommunications development slightly distorts trade in the foreign trade-GDP nexus in South Africa. Despite this, the negative interaction effect is not substantial enough toovershadow the positive impact of trade openness on economic growth. From a policy perspective, the study recommends that South African policymakers prioritise enhancing local goods' competitiveness in global markets and reducing trade barriers. It also advocates for improving the accessibility and affordability of telecommunications technologies to foster economic development