An analysis on the influence of Great Powers in Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan: The case of GERD, 2011-2022

Abstract

Many years have passed since the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dam has been a subject of controversy at the centre of the Nile River hydro-politics. This is because Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan have persistently contested the direct ownership of GERD dam. Historically, there have been gaps in assessing Great Power competition in the Nile River. Therefore, this study explored China, the United States (US), and Russia's competition in shaping the power dynamics in the Nile and the diplomacy on the GERD dam between 2011 to 2022. It is also very important to acknowledge that whilst the Great Powers actively pursued their strategic interests in the Nile region, the African Union (AU) has been lagging behind. This study argued that each of the Great Powers have a hand in shaping the diplomatic direction of the GERD politics through different approaches, though not always in a direct manner. China's use of soft power, primarily through infrastructure investments, has created a dependence that shifts the power balance in the Nile. Meanwhile, the US has capitalised on its influence through strategic aid, diplomatic pressures, and a clear alignment with Egypt in the GERD issue. Additionally, Russia's approach has been marked by its military and energy collaboration attempts. The study utilized a qualitative research approach, incorporating document reviews and thematic content analysis to identify and analyse the findings of the study. The study is grounded on the Afrocentricity theory. Henceforth, the findings suggested that the Great Powers have hindered effective diplomatic efforts for the Nile riparian states to reach an agreement. This obstruction arises from conflicting interests, including diplomatic pressures and policies of non-interference. The findings further indicated that the AU mechanisms for managing the cross-border resource in the Nile River has not been effective in practise. The prevalence of the Great Powers in obstructing diplomacy in the Nile River highlights the need of analysing their dominance in other shared river basins in Africa. Integrating these perspectives offered a more nuanced understanding of their roles in exacerbating or mitigating regional conflicts in attempt of informing better transboundary policy responses.