The mediating effect of trust on financial development and stock market comovement in BRICS economies

Abstract

This study examines the effects of financial development on the stock market comovement of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) on the one hand and the US Dow Jones on the other. Its main goal is to find out if trust has a mediating effect on financial development using data from the World Bank and the World Value Survey (WVS). Panel data analysis along with ARDL methods helped the authors obtain robust results. It was found that financial development plays a significant role in determining stock market comovement among the countries in question and that trust also has a moderating impact. The analysis was extended to the institutional and market factors of financial development. The paper introduces trust as a mediating variable that positively affects financial development, which in turn promotes stock market integration and comovement. Its results imply that investors should consider financial development and trust levels of a country when considering portfolio allocation for global diversification purposes, especially in emerging markets. Countries with insufficient trust levels, like Brazil, could benefit from improving their trust score through enhancing financial development and stability.