'n Besluitnemingsondersteuningsmodel vir 'n spesifieke bankinstelling

Abstract

A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR A SPECIFIC BANKING INSTITUTION INTRODUCTION The study was carried out in one of the largest financial institutions in the Republic of South Africa. The following objectives were set: Primary: To determine what information should be included in a model that could be considered as critical information which should be supplied to decision-makers; to ensure that the needs expressed by the research represent ,_as wide a spectrum of decision-makers as possible. Secondary: To determine training requirements which will enhance continuity with clients which is affected when managers are transferred; to improve communication between managers and clients.

Problem specification - In the banking environment there is ever-increasing pressure on managers to make speedier and better decisions. This pressure manifests itself primarily within the business segment of the bank's client portfolio. The main reasons for this are the rapid growth of this sector within the economy and the increase in sophistication resulting from developments within information technology. Method of research - Questionnaires were randomly supplied to branch, area, regional and top management. The questionnaire was divided into four sections. These sections were management, environment, business and security. A total of 38 questions were included of which 33 were independent variables and questions 1, 21 , 32, 35 and 38 were used as dependent variables in the regression analysis. Each factor was evaluated on a seven-point scale. A total of 72 questionnaires were distributed and 72 were returned, therefore realising a 100% response. A literature study was undertaken to investigate: information required for decision-making; a decision support system and critical information.

Analysis and results - All data contained within the questionnaires were analysed using the BMDP mainframe statistical package. The four sections - Of the four sections the environment, business and security were pinpointed as the critical sections declaring 47.4% of the variance of the dependent variable. The dependent variable, question 1 in the management section, had an average of 6.47 and a standard deviation of less than one. This indicates that the decision-makers do regard this section as being more important to very important. Traditionally, security and management were seen as the most important sections regarding information required to make a credit decision in a financial environment. The omission of management as a critical section, although it is indicated as important, is interpreted as an indication that due to the importance attached to this section in the past, the information required is seen as a matter of course. More information regarding the other sections, however, is required to improve decision-making. A further regression analysis of the questions contained in each section, indicated which questions were to be seen as the most critical per section.

Questions 20, 12 and 14 yielded the most critical information required by the decision-maker regarding the environment. This result indicates the need for the decision-maker to establish the market feasibility while the macro-economic importance points towards a need for better motivation of why this particular proposed business should succeed. Among the questions posed in the business section, questions 30, 27 and 24 surfaced as the most critical. Where profitability has traditionally been the focus when assessing an application, the results indicate a futuristic approach by the decision-maker, indicating that other factors need to be put in place first, before profit can be generated. Security will always be part of any credit decision. Of importance, however, is the outcome of questions 33, 36 and 34 in order of importance. Clearly a change in the traditional approach towards security is noted. The decision-maker is moving away from a quantitative approach and focusing more on a qualitative approach. Management as integral section is firmly embedded in decision-making, hence the low critical value which was realised. Information required by the decision-maker is viewed as a matter of course and therefore questions 4, 9 and 8 can be seen as a need by the decision-maker to strengthen his evaluation and motivation, in order to arrive at a good decision. The model itself - The nine questions which emerged as the most critical to the decision-maker explain 69% of the variance of the independent variables.

Questions 20 and 17 have to do with macro-economic factors. Information received about the national economy will assist the decision-maker to position the business within the economy, while question 17, the rate of inflation, is commonly accepted as a measure of real growth. Questions 9, 7, 11 and 6 indicate the need for the decision-maker to communicate with the businessman on his level. Information concerning the product, question 13, will justify the application of funds, while questions 34 and 33 regarding the quality of the security, completes the model. The model therefore contains an interesting yet balanced need as expressed by the decision-maker. Conclusion - In addition to the nine questions determined as critical for the decision-maker on which to base decisions, it further realises a success rate of 69%, should any decision be made which is based on information received on these questions. The research has therefore complied with the primary goal which was set. With the respondents having supported all levels of management, the information is seen to represent a wide spectrum of decision-makers. This allows the second objective to be met.

The accepted banking policy which allows for branch managers to be transferred at regular intervals directly affects the continuity with existing clients. A well-developed and implemented training course can address this very problem by ensuring that the acumen of all managers conforms to a set standard as addressed by the critical factors, hence allowing for a smooth takeover by new managers. The need for such a training course is clearly highlighted in the research and thus addresses one of the secondary objectives. There can be no doubt about the need expressed by the decision-maker to better his understanding of the factors influencing business people. Information received from the model in this regard will improve communication, and with this, it addresses the second secondary objective. Suggestions - The decision-maker of the future has identified a very different need which the banking institution will have to take cognizance of. As a spinoff, the possibility of the development of a customized expert system should be investigated, as this will further the organisation's goal towards even more efficient decision-making.

The research achieved all the goals as set out in the introduction. Keeping in mind the diversity of people in banking institutions, it becomes almost imperative that such a support system should accommodate the norms and values of individuals and therefore accommodate the contribution made towards a tranquil and successful environment.