Impacts of temperature and rainfall variability on the management of rhinos on private land in South Africa

Abstract

Variability in temperature and rainfall presents a significant challenge for wildlife management in South Africa, especially for privately owned rhino reserves. Such reserves remain vulnerable to changing environments due to financial constraints, limited infrastructure and unpredictable climatic events, which can place pressure on critical resources such as water and vegetation. To address this gap, this study seeks to investigate if, and to what extent, temperature and rainfall variability influence the management practices of privately owned rhinos. This research investigated the extent to which temperature and rainfall variability influence the management of privately owned rhinos in South Africa and sought to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies that can improve management resilience to extreme climatic events.

A mixed-methods approach was used by combining quantitative data, comprising historical climate data from 1994 to 2023 for Limpopo, Mpumalanga and the North West provinces, with qualitative data obtained from semi-structured interviews with private stakeholders. The quantitative analysis involved linear regression, percentile analysis and the creation of time series to identify trends and to analyse El Niño and La Niña events. Meanwhile, thematic analysis was used to analyse the qualitative data, providing insight into the participants' perspectives on if and how temperature and rainfall influence management practices.

The findings reveal a consistent warming trend across all three provinces, together with a variability and overall decline in rainfall, which significantly affects resource availability. Key challenges identified include reduced access to water and decreasing vegetation quality and availability, creating increased reliance on artificial watering sources and supplementary feeding, thus elevating operational costs and psychological stress on rhino owners. Adaptive strategies employed by some of the reserves include increasing water infrastructure by drilling boreholes and harvesting rainwater, rotational grazing, mosaic burning, habitat restoration and supplementary feeding. However, these adaptive methods are limited as they are not efficient during long drought periods. This study concludes that privately owned rhinos are highly vulnerable to climate variability, which has substantial implications for both ecological sustainability and economic viability.