Evaluation of Russian OFDI based on balance of payments and OECD data (before COVID-19)

Abstract

This article presents an analysis of Russia's outward foreign direct investment based on the balance of payments. The country has been affected by the "Dutch disease," characterized by a heavy reliance on the mining industry and revenues from oil and gas exports. The financial account reveals a consistent outflow of capital from Russia, surpassing inflows. A significant portion of domestic investment goes abroad, often to offshore destinations. This capital outflow has not been fully offset by foreign capital inflows. These findings underscore the challenges faced by Russia in managing its financial position, including the need to address capital outflows, diversify the economy, and reduce dependence on raw material exports. Furthermore, this article aims to identify the presence of Russian capital in OECD countries by comparing data from the Central Bank of Russia and the OECD. The analysis reveals significant discrepancies between the two datasets, primarily due to unavailable or confidential information in the OECD dataset. These variations can also be attributed to differences in methodology and the specific nature of Russian outward direct investments, particularly those involving offshore jurisdictions. As a result, accurately determining the extent of Russian capital in OECD countries based on the available data becomes a challenging task (including for the tourism industry as well).