Talent risk management in the New Generation of Academics Programme within a South African university

Abstract

South African Higher Education Institutions face an "academic talent void" driven by an ageing professoriate and the slow pace of demographic transformation. The New Generation of Academics Programme (nGAP), established by the Department of Higher Education and Training, represents the state's primary strategic intervention to address this crisis by recruiting and developing earlycareer academics from designated groups. Despite representing a substantial national investmentof approximately R2.5 million per post over six years, the programme's talent-related risks have not been systematically examined through a comprehensive Talent Risk Management (TRM) lens.This qualitative study adopted an interpretivist paradigm to explore how talent risks are identified,assessed, and mitigated within the nGAP across the four domains of the academic talent lifecycle: acquisition, development, retention, and succession planning. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 11 participants, comprising four programme administrators and seven nGAP fellows across seven institutions. Data were analysed using Reflexive Thematic Analysis, triangulated with policy document analysis to expose the gap between national policy intent and institutional operational reality.The study reveals the emergence of a "Two-Tier System" of academic development, where the effectiveness of risk management is fundamentally determined by institutional capacity. In well-resourced institutions, systematic governance mechanisms create a virtuous cycle of talent acceleration. Conversely, in resource-constrained, historically disadvantaged institutions, ad hoc crisis management,infrastructure deficits, and "phantom mentorship" create a vicious cycle of stagnation and attrition.Key findings include the "Asymmetric War for Talent" in acquisition, where elite universities operate in a buyer's market while rural institutions face adverse selection pressures; the "Poaching Paradox,"whereby successful development increases external recruitment risk; and the "Implementation Gap," where policy protections such as reduced workload are violated at the departmental level.The study makes three distinct contributions. Theoretically, it extends Strategic Talent Managementdiscourse into the public sector by integrating the Resource-Based View with Social Exchange Theory. Empirically, it provides the first qualitative risk profile of the nGAP from a lived-experience perspective. In practice, it offers a "Talent Stewardship Framework" comprising strategic principles for the DHET and universities, including differentiated funding models for STEM disciplines,formalised Mentorship Service Level Agreements, and proactive "Stay Interviews" to manage retention risks. The research concludes that bridging the academic talent void requires moving from administrative grant compliance to talent stewardship, addressing not only financial inputs but the governance of career trajectories.