The advanced and moderate-growth development paths for the viability and future growth of small wind energy systems

Abstract

The government of South Africa initiated the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2010-2030 to redefine the country's energy portfolio and commitment to wind energy development. The document recommended more research in small wind electricity generation as this sector is presently experiencing very little development. Previous studies have identified several limitations to the development of this sector, especially with regards to the available policies and economic performance of the system in the country. In addressing the limitations identified, this study designed two different but complementary development-paths for the viability and future growth of the system. The advanced-growth development path is a market-pull solution expected to stimulate demand increase of the technology and quickly grow the sector. This incentive-oriented solution computed the amount of capital subsidy required by consumers in different locations of the country and projected the market growth of the technology. The moderate-growth development path is a long term solution expected to achieve cost reduction of the system and sustainable growth of the sector. This technology-push measure estimated the capital costs at which the system becomes competitive with other types of electricity-generating technologies, projected the future costs of the system, and estimated the corresponding cumulative capacities of the projected costs