Differential effects of macroeconomic indicators on food security in sub-Saharan African countries.

Abstract

Global food insecurity has worsened due to COVID-19 and political crises. Persistent regional disparities are evident, with Africa, and specifically sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), bearing the heaviest burden. This study therefore explores the differential effects of macroeconomic variables on both the demand and supply sides of food security and their components, based on cross-country data from 2012 to 2022 for 28 countries, using panelcorrected standard error (PCSE) and system generalized method of moments (SGMM). Descriptive analysis reveals average food security percentages of 48.14% and 44.08% for the demand and supply sides, respectively. The PCSE and SGMM results also show that economic growth, agricultural output, and food trade openness have a similar effect on both the demand and supply sides, while employment in agriculture, population growth, and food price inflation have differential effects. The study recommends enhancing supply-side dimensions due to their lower indices and targeted interventions for short run impacts.