Effects of climate change on productivity among small-scale maize farmers in the Ngaka Modiri Molema District

Abstract

Climate change is a global phenomenon that has various effects on the agricultural industry. The Department of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries identified maize as the most important grain crop in the country, as it accumulates a larger proportion of the gross value of field crops. As such, the study assessed the effects of climate change on yield among small-scale maize farmers in the Ngaka Modiri Molema District Municipality, North-West Province, South Africa. The particular emphasis of the study was on the socio-economic standards of the small-scale maize farmers in the Ngaka Modiri Molema District Municipality, their perceptions and their knowledge regarding climate change. These were analyzed through descriptive analysis, while the assessment of the adaptation strategies was through a multinomial logistic regression model and the assessment of yield concerning climate change was through the use of a multiple linear regression model. The multiple linear regression model revealed that the volatility which was experienced throughout the area on a yearly valuation resonates with the particular climatic setting; therefore, if temperatures were not favourable in the year of assessment and greater rainfall were to occur then this would influence the overall maize yield in the area of analysis. On the other hand, the multinomial regression model indicated that the farm size, household size, level of education, experienced climate effects, contact with extension officers and the farmer's exposure to Agri- park initiatives implemented by the DAFF particularly influenced the adaption of most strategies in the area. The strategies evaluated in the study include the following: changing production practices, praying, improved irrigation efficiency, and a combination of the aforementioned strategies. The study concludes that climate change has an immense influence on yield production and the choice of adaptation strategies amongst small-scale maize farmers in the Ngaka Modiri Molema District Municipality. The major recommendations of the study is the increase of the influential impact of nigh time temperatures on the yield of maize and the increased participation of small scale maize farmers amongst DAFF exhibition etc. as it increases farmers yield.