Urban and rural growth modelling : from theory to practice

Abstract

Cities are considered complex systems (Batty, 2008). It consists of numerous interactive sub-systems and is affected by diverse factors including government land policies, population growth, transportation infrastructure, and market behaviour. According to Rui (2013), land use and transportation systems are considered as the two most important subsystems determining urban form and structure in the long term. Urbanisation is causing many spatial challenges for Planners. City growth and changes in land-use patterns cause various important social and environmental impacts (Lambin & Geist, 2007). To understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of these processes, the factors that drive urban and rural development should be identified and analysed, especially those factors that can be used to predict future changes and their potential environmental effects. To plan for these changes, it is necessary to prognosticate the spatial pattern of urban and rural growth. This research considered the theory and practice of urban and rural growth modelling, in an attempt to develop a methodology to predict spatial patterns. The method applied to the area of study were based theoretical mathematic calculations and extensive experience in the field of urban and rural planning. The study also concluded on the importance and necessity of future growth predictions in order to address the challenges of the past and provide for needs of the future. The planning recommendations captured in the study were based on the findings from the theoretical and empirical investigation