Rural households’ adaptation to drought and welfare impacts in John Taolo Gaetsewe District, Northern Cape Province

Abstract

Drought is a global problem that has a negative impact on the welfare of millions of people in both industrialized and developing nations. In South Africa, poor rural households, who depend on rain-fed subsistence agriculture for their livelihoods are most susceptible to drought and have the least ability to buffer and absorb its impacts. The primary goal of this study was to identify the different adaptation methods being used against the occurrences of drought, to analyse the effects of drought adaptation strategies on rural households’ welfare and to compute the welfare enhancement impacts that are associated with each adaptation method. The study was conducted in John Taolo Gaetsewe district, Northern Cape province. A mixture of multistage and simple random sampling techniques were used in the study to select rural households, who were affected by drought. The results showed that the average age of households’ heads was 52 years. Only 41% of the households’ heads had an education level between Grades 8 and 12, and about 63% were male. Average farming experience was 7.67 years and pensioners made up about 47%. Also, 65% of households’ heads depended on government assistance, while 85% lacked access to formal credit. Additionally, 63% of household heads lacked access to extension services and information about drought. To determine the various adaptation strategies used against drought occurrences and their determinants, the study used multinomial logistic regression. Crop diversification and livestock diversification, drought tolerant crops, zero tillage, crop rotation, mulching, delayed planting, dry planting, and rainwater harvesting were found to be among the nine adaptation techniques used by the sampled rural households. According to the results of the multinomial logistic regression, marriage status, education, farming experience, access to knowledge about the drought, and access to extension services were all positive and statistically significant at (p = 0.05). These findings suggested that access to extension services, education, farming experience, and marriage were significant determinants of the adoption of various drought adaptation measures that would help to improve the welfare of rural households. The 2SLS results showed that farming experience, access to drought knowledge, and access to extension services, significantly influenced the per capita consumption expenditure of rural households. The study also used propensity score matching to calculate the welfare enhancement impacts related to each adaptation strategy. These results revealed that adopting at least one of these adaptation strategies could significantly enhance the welfare of rural households. Considering the findings of the study, several recommendations were made. These included rural households having access to drought adaptation strategies, access to drought information and regular visits by extension officers.