The implementation of statistical arbitrage strategy on the JSE top 40 index option
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North-West University (South Africa)
Abstract
This study implemented the statistical arbitrage strategy on financial time series. This strategy
is known as an extended horizon trading prospect used for generating profit that is riskless and
is further designed for exploiting tenacious incongruities. The study used statistical arbitrage
strategy to explore its efficiency on selected stock markets in pricing relative risk in highly
correlated and cointegrated stock options traded on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE).
Statistical arbitrage avoids the dual premise dilemma associated with traditional tests of market
efficacy. This is due to autonomous description of model symmetry and the fact that the said
strategy has a mismatch with market competency. The study explored the methodology for
investigating statistical arbitrage and provided the findings that determined whether or not
value trading policies constitute opportunities for statistical arbitrage.
The data used are related to four sectors: the financial, industrial, mining and retail that trade
on the JSE. These data are for stock market comprising closing prices of option stock for 40
companies of the four sectors traded on the JSE. The data was collected daily from 04 January
2010 to 31 December 2015. A total of 1500 observations with one year approximately having
250 trading days excluding weekends and public holidays was used.
The study followed the methodology of two broad components: simple rolling regression and
Engle and Granger cointegration technique. A two-step approach, namely correlation analysis
and cointegration technique, were used in formulating potential pairs portfolio on the basis of
the profitability indicator evaluated in-sample. The findings from correlational analysis
revealed thirty nine pairs under financial sector, two pairs under industrial sector, five pairs
under mining sector and six pairs under retail sector. The selected pairs were stationary at first
log difference. The findings of cointegration analysis confirmed only eighteen pairs under
financial sector, one pair in industrial sector, two pairs in mining sector and three pairs in retail
sector. Since the results revealed a mean reversion, statistical arbitration strategy was
implemented. The findings revealed that the financial sector perfom1ed better than the other
three sectors. The implementation of pairs trading to historical volatility revealed several
possibilities of trade in the financial sector. Therefore, the investors profit more from trading
the identified pairs of stocks in the financial sector.
The study contributes to the existing literature in historical volatility modelling and stochastic
volatility in the field of index option in emerging markets. This study further provided a base
for future researchers conducting studies on emerging markets, more specifically in South
African context.
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PhD (Statistics), North-West University, Mafikeng Campus