Demographic impact of HIV/AIDS on the population of Botswana 2001-2016

Abstract

This study examines the demographic impact of HIV/ AIDS in Botswana, using data from the 2001 population census and the 2004 & 2006 Botswana AIDS Impact Surveys. The study prepares three sets of projections for the population of Botswana: slow, medium and fast decline of HIV/AIDS scenarios. The assumptions regarding mortality, fertility and migration are similar in all the three scenarios, except for HIV/ AIDS assumptions. The fast variant represents the faster decline of HIV/ AIDS prevalence rates, slow decline represents a slower decline rate of HIV/ AIDS, and middle variant assumes that the trend that was observed between 2001 and 2004 will continue to be experienced. This study considers the medium variant to be the most likely scenario. Based on the medium variant, the total population of Botswana is projected to grow from 1 669 190 in 2001 to 2 137 400 in 2016. Although the population is projected to grow, the growth rate of the country is projected to decline due to HIV/AIDS. In 2001 , population growth was 2.5% and it is anticipated to decline to 0.6% in 2016. The decline will also be experienced at district level. The most awful decline will be observed in Phikwe district with negative growth rate of -0.5% in 2016. Mortality has increased in the country from 2001 to 2013, and then improves to the year 2016. For example, life expectancy (e0) for both sexes will decline from 54.5 years in 2001 to 44.8 years in 2013, then rise to 45.5 years in 2016. Furthermore, the total fertility rate (TFR) will decline from 3.2 in 2001 to reach replacement level. Numbers of AIDS orphans and AIDS population will also increase. AIDS orphans will be 83 04 7 in 2016 and AIDS deaths will increase to 19 080 in the same year. This study recommends that the government should intensify its efforts to prevent new infections because Botswana's long-term vision is to have no new HIV infections by 2016. This can only be achieved with an enormous and non-stop HIV prevention campaigns. In addition to that, Botswana has a potential to reap the benefits of demographic dividend, so in order for the country to realize that, right policies should be put in place. A broader measure would include infrastructure (health care systems, schooling, roads, and transport) and a formal labour market with unions and laws protecting both employees and employers.