Vulnerability and resilience in the Mopani district municipality in a changing climate
Abstract
The overall aim of this study is to identify how climate change may impact on the Mopani district municipality (MDM) in Limpopo province of South Africa, towards the formulation of suitable adaptation strategies. This implies the projection of future risks and vulnerabilities of the MDM and its rural communities under climate change, and a need to understand the resilience of these communities, and how it can be strengthened. Eighty-one percent (81%) of the communities of MDM are rural in nature, 14% are urban and 5% are farms according to MDM IDP for 2016/17 and the reviewed MDM IDP, 2017/18 indicated that there are 16 urban areas which includes towns and townships, 354 villages; moreover, due to the high poverty and low educational level rural communities of MDM are limited to economic development and to the outside market in terms of job opportunities. Based on the above mentioned challenges, MDM rural communities there is a high possibility of being vulnerable to impact of climate change. A projection of the future changes of climate in the MDM was generated using a regional model in South Africa. These detailed projections are interpreted within the larger set of global climate model projections for north-eastern South Africa, as described in Assessment Report Five of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change. Results show drastic increases in temperature and extreme temperature events in the Limpopo province including the MDM under low mitigation climate change futures, already in the near-future period of 2030-2050. In particular, drastic increases in the frequency of occurrence of extreme temperatures (e.g. number of heat-wave and high-fire danger days) are likely to occur in the MDM, whilst seasons of drought will also plausibly occur more often. Such changes will impact on human health, livestock production, and agriculture in the MDM over the next few decades. Given that MDM rural communities living conditions are not sufficient in terms of services that are rendered to them by the government such as the provision of water for domestic use and sanitation in terms of safe and reliable toilet facilities and dumping sites, electricity for lightning and cooking, health services and facilities, roads, bridges and housing infrastructures, it may be concluded that vulnerability to the above mentioned climate stressors is high. The methodology for assessing climate change vulnerability was based on the UNDP approach, where climate change vulnerability is represented as an outcome of the interrelationships between hazard exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity The interaction between hazard exposure, based on observed climate data (present-day) and climate change projections (future), and sensitivity, based on an analysis of bio-physical characteristics, can be understood as encompassing the risks posed by present-day climate variability and future climate change. Aspects that contribute towards the resilience of communities in the MDM to climate risks was assessed based on the status of the available financial and human resources, provision of basic services (e.g. infrastructure) that is readily available to rural comunities to respond to the occurance of disaster risks associated with climate change Moreover, existing socio-economic vulnerabilities in the Mopani District Municipality will worsen under climate change as the majority of rural communities are reliant on subsistence agriculture and natural resources to supplement government grants (implying vulnerabilities in terms of food security in a climate that becomes more variable and extreme).