Economic growth and life expectancy: a panel analysis of the BRICS countries

Abstract

With notable increases in GDP per capita and a disproportionate share of global output, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) economies have become prominent actors in the global economy. However, these nations have continued to face several health issues, ranging from the prevalence of both communicable and non-communicable illnesses, and water and air pollution, as well as road traffic accidents. Thus, life expectancy, a crucial measure of population health, has not increased consistently across these countries despite significant economic progress. Hence, this current study sought to statistically investigate the link between life expectancy and economic growth of the BRICS nations. With data sourced from World Bank Development indicators for the period 2000-2023, a life expectancy model and a growth model are estimated in this study in cooperating variables such as life expectancy, GDP per capita, education, trade, physicians per 1000, CO2 emissions, health expenditure per capita, and gross fixed capital formation. This study investigates the long-run relationship between life expectancy and economic growth in the BRICS countries using annual panel data and advanced econometric techniques. The panel cointegration approach was employed and the results confirm a stable long-term link between the variables. The Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimators as well as Granger causality test were applied to capture both long-term and short-term dynamics. The empirical results of the Life Expectancy Model of this study showed that GDP per capita and education have significant positive effects on life expectancy in the BRICS countries, while carbon emissions have a significant negative relationship with life expectancy. The Granger causality analysis further reveals a bidirectional relationship between GDP per capita and life expectancy, indicating that economic growth and population health mutually reinforce each other. Additionally, carbon emissions unidirectionally Granger-cause life expectancy, highlighting the detrimental impact of environmental degradation on health outcomes. These findings suggest that policies aimed at improving life expectancy should prioritize sustained economic growth, expansion of educational opportunities, and effective environmental management. More specifically, governments should invest in income-generating initiatives (micro- and small enterprise development, and Transport and Logistics Services among others) and social protection, to boost GDP per capita, enhance access to quality education to strengthen human capital, and also implement stringent carbon emission controls alongside renewable energy vi adoption to mitigate health risks from pollution. Such integrated strategies can simultaneously improve population health and reinforce long-term economic development. Furthermore, the empirical findings from the Economic Growth Model indicate that life expectancy and current health expenditure per capita have statistically significant positive effects on economic growth in the BRICS countries. The Granger causality analysis shows that life expectancy unidirectionally Granger-causes GDP per capita, and carbon emissions also exhibit a unidirectional causal influence on economic growth. These results highlight the central role of population health and healthcare investment in promoting economic performance, as well as the potential impact of environmental quality on growth outcomes. Based on the significant long-run results, policymakers in the BRICS countries should prioritize interventions that improve population health and strengthen healthcare systems. Investments in healthcare infrastructure, preventive care, and public health programmes will enhance labour productivity and support sustainable economic growth. Given the causal influence of life expectancy on economic performance, integrating health improvements into national development strategies is crucial. Additionally, although carbon emissions are not significant in the long run, their unidirectional effect on economic growth underscores the importance of environmental management. Policies should include stricter emission controls, promotion of renewable energy, and cleaner industrial practices to protect both health and long-term economic performance.