Analysing the trade resilience of the SADC member states during the Covid-19 pandemic

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has had profound implications for global trade, exposing the vulnerabilities of global and regional trade networks, emphasising the importance of resilience. This dissertation analysed the trade resilience of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) during the pandemic, with a focus on assessing how member countries responded to and recovered from the substantial disruptions to trade. To achieve this the study integrated qualitative and quantitative techniques, the qualitative component is embedded within the literature review, while the quantitative analysis was split into three distinct parts. The first part of the analysis focused on determining the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the trade flows of the SADC countries, using secondary data over an eight-year period (2015-2022). The second part analysed the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the trade resilience of the SADC member states. Finally, the third part of the analysis employed fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to evaluate the relationships between the determinants of trade resilience within the SADC context. The analysis highlighted that the Covid-19 pandemic had a substantial impact on the SADC region, resulting in a significant decrease in trade flows. Despite the pandemic's widespread impact on trade, the severity of the shock varied notably among SADC member states. The findings underscore the region's reliance on global markets and the dominating role of major contributors such as South Africa. Findings from the trade resilience analysis revealed substantial variations between member states with regard to their abilities to resist and recover from the trade disruption. Countries found to be increasingly vulnerable to the trade disruption were shown to have limited economic diversification, an overreliance on single commodities or services, and lacking global and regional integration. The results from the fsQCA analysis compliments the existing literature on this subject matter and indicates that no single factor was enough to ensure trade resilience; rather, the combination of factors determined a country's ability to withstand and recover from the disruption. Key conditions contributing to trade resilience include logistics performance, healthcare preparedness, government response, levels of globalisation, and regional integration. The study concludes that policymakers should prioritise resilience-building strategies that go beyond short-term crisis management and addresses long-term vulnerabilities. Further recommendations include investment in logistics and healthcare systems, diversification of export portfolios, and the strengthening of regional cooperation. By analysing the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the SADC countries, this study contributes to the literature on African trade and provides actionable insights for policymakers seeking to enhance the stability and sustainability of trade in the face of future disruptions.