Identifying export opportunities for South Africa in the southern engines: A DSM approach

Abstract

Brazil, China and India have been described as 'southern engines of growth' in the world economy. By 2050, these three countries could count under the top 5 largest economies in the world. This implies many opportunities for international trade. Governments could facilitate such international trade by helping firms identify feasible export opportunities. In this paper we set out a decision support model (DSM) to assist in the identification of such opportunities. We illustrate the potential usefulness of the model by applying it to the case of South Africa-the first time that we are aware of that it has been applied to an African country. The DSM indicates that there exist significant opportunities for South African exporters in 'southern engines of growth', in particular China and India, and to a lesser extent, Brazil. We identify 51 export opportunities in Brazil, 259 in China, and 198 in India. The number of export opportunities identified in China is the largest of any country, emphasizing the importance of the Chinese market for exports from South Africa.