Developing a conceptual model of resilience of communities to climate change in the Cuvelai Etosha Basin

Abstract

Research on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change have increased because of the growing realisation that the response determines resilience. Societal capacity to adapt is linked to both severity of impacts and societal readiness and preparation. The aim of this study was to identify the factors that make communities vulnerable to floods in the Cuvelai-Etosha Basin in Namibia. To achieve this aim, 50-year historical precipitationpatterns from the Oshakati weather station were examined and the time series was analysed using statistical package for social science (SPSS) version 29. Since the precipitation data was over a 50-year period, it was expected that data quality issues might arise and, therefore, the research incorporated data wrangling steps to address them. The wrangling steps involved treating missing data, conducting reliability testing, and shaping the data to ensure it is suitable for its intended use. Besides the precipitation data, a hazard risk analysis was conducted in the study area to determine if there were any predisposing factors that could possibly induce flooding during the rainy season. An indicator-based approach was used in the ground truthing exercise, and it allowed for a holistic assessment of risk factors such as physical, environmental, and social that could be linked to the community’s vulnerability. The results of the hazard analysis were used to identify areas which had the highest risk to flooding, and these were used to map out areas of high, moderate, and minimal risk. The areas at risk to flooding where delineated using geodata derived from satellite imagery and various shapefiles and geographic information system software was used to create flood hazard maps. The overall purpose of the study was to develop a conceptual model that will be used to explain the various components, interactions and dynamics involved in building resilience to the impacts of climate change in the in the Cuvelai Etosha Basin. The results revealed that significant precipitation fell only during the months of November through to April, with notable intensity in the first three months of the year. Further analysis revealed that the rainfall amounts, and rain season had significantly shortened over the last 10 years however, the rainfall intensity had also increased during the usual rainfall months but were not enough to warrant extensive flooding. The study also revealed that floods experienced in Ehenye community in Oshakati, especially in the years 2008; 2010; 2011 and 2014 were also induced by the geography of the area which played a significant role in determining susceptibility to flooding. Factors such as presence of depressions/Oshana’s and proximity to the Okatana river contributed to the size and characteristics of the watershed. The main non-climatic reasons for flooding were the absence of critical flood infrastructure such as municipal constructed storm water drainages. The town’s disaster management was found to primarily focus on rescue and relief and the government interventions are limited to financial and early warning systems. Overall, the flooding was attributed to a combination of identified irregularities in town planning, inadequacy in flood infrastructure and shortened but intensified rainy season. The results also revealed that the study area had a good legal environment on paper, but implementation was lacking. Possible areas of opportunities to leverage adaptation were identified and resilience strategies were recommended. Using the results obtained as well as literature search, a conceptual model of resilience to climate change was developed. The model was developed to understand the multidimensional nature of resilience through measuring pre-event characteristics that contribute to a community’s capacity to reduce existing risk, prepare for, and recover better from a flood event. The model also considered all critical factors that must be prioritized when planning for settlement in areas that are prone to climatic hazards. The holistic comprehensive approach of the model can guide the planning authority into building climate resilient communities. The study recommends implementation of policies, plans and fostering horizontal communication and coordination between line town authority, line departments and communities to reduce further flood vulnerabilities and thus strengthening resilience.