A holistic feasibility assessment of the South African coal to carbon industry

Abstract

The coal-to-carbon industry converts beneficiated coal into high-value, non-energy carbon products. South Africa, a coal-dependent developing country, can leverage the coal-to-carbon industry to develop such products from coal or carbon precursors sourced from coal. The industry provides novel markets and alternative options for South Africa’s current coal utilisation. This study aimed to assess the feasibility of South Africa's coal-to-carbon industry by comprehensively exploring market, technical, economic, environmental, and operational feasibility factors. It explored the status of coal-to-carbon products and technologies in South Africa, identified barriers and enablers for developing valuable carbon products from coal, identified opportunities for new products, and developed a stakeholder’s relationship for the coal-to-carbon industry. The study summarizes key feasibility factors to guide decisions on alternative coal utilization, inform policy development, and offer decision support. The investigation employed a qualitative approach. Initially, a systematic literature review was conducted to discover and evaluate feasibility factors (barriers, enablers, and opportunities). Additionally, semi-structured interviews were carried out with experts specializing in coal conversion technologies and coal-based carbon products. Thematic analysis was then performed on the collected data to extract and analyse perspectives and opinions regarding the feasibility of the industry. SWOT-TOWS and Porter’s five forces analyses were conducted to examine strengths, weaknesses, and internal and external factors affecting the industry, respectively, centred on a systematic literature review and the findings from the empirical investigation. These analytical tools provide a comprehensive view of the feasibility of the South African coal-to-carbon industry. Results show that South Africa has the necessary resources and expertise for a viable industry, with a solid value chain. However, environmental challenges, particularly the significant greenhouse gas emissions from current carbon precursor production processes, and a general lack of carbon technologies for diverse carbon products, present notable barriers. To fill industry narrative gaps, collaboration recommendations were provided for key stakeholders. However, the study's limitations include potential oversight of some stakeholder perspectives, incomplete exploration of alternative scenarios or strategies, and reliance on assumptions in strategic analysis that may not align with real-world developments. The identification of future research opportunities aims to delve into various aspects and niches of the coal-to-carbon industry.