An Intelligence Risk Management Framework for South Africa : an exploratory perspective

Abstract

Recently, there have been constant reports of natural disasters (e.g. flooding in Kwa-Zulu Natal [KZN] or hailstorms in Alberton, Gauteng), threatening situations ranging from terrorism, ethnic conflicts within states, violent protest action (e.g. 2021 protest in KZN and Gauteng), strikes (e.g. labour strikes in TRANSNET/harbours), and even countries at war (e.g. Ukraine/Russian). Due to international technological development, new threats materialise from e-banking, economic business transfers, identity theft, transnational crime, and cyber-terrorism. By their nature, these risks emerge or come and go. Some risks diminish or disappear while new risks emerge or come to the fore (Cleary & Malleret, 2006:44). An effective national intelligence system is responsible for ensuring that the above threats and risks are adequately attended to, through early warning capabilities and secure systems of communication. While the nature of security challenges and the study of security itself has, in some ways, been transformed by the end of the Cold War, the central task of intelligence services has essentially remained the same. Hulnick (2005:593) observed that: Nothing is more important in the world of intelligence than preventing surprise. Thus, an intelligence failure is considered more critical if it comes as a surprise. Most of these occurrences have resulted in research by academics and practitioners into why these failures or incidents happened and what must be rectified to ensure that no future failures happen. Therefore, this study analyses and assesses intelligence, risk management and national security fields to determine the inter-relationship between these three phenomena and which changes need to be implemented to create an Intelligence Risk Management Framework (IRMF) to overcome some of these shortfalls. This study described the theories (meta-theories) or processes of intelligence and risk management, which form the foundation on which the IRMF rest. Consequently, in this new threat environment, providing warning (generating secured and actionable knowledge about these challenges) has become considerably more complex, a fact recognised by this study in the SA intelligence context. Thus, an IRMF could contribute to an understanding of threats and provide the required knowledge to make decisions in dealing with them by ensuring a minimum impact on the state and its people.