The determinants of fertility for each population group in South Africa
Abstract
The study aims at examining the relationship between fertility and socio-economic
characteristics in the course of which it investigates the determinants or correlates of
fertility for each population group (Africans, Coloureds, Whites and Asians) in South
Africa.
The main source of data for this study was the 1998 South African Demographic and
Health Survey. In terms of statistical analysis, univariate, biavariate and multiple
regression analyses were used. Univariate analysis was used to present the
background characteristics of the respondents. Multivariate regression analysis was
employed to determine the most important determinants of fertility for each
population group.
The study established that fertility is highest amongst Africans and lowest among
whites. Asians and Coloureds have fertility that is between that of the Africans and
Whites. The study also found that for each population group, fertility is measured by
the mean number of children ever born which varies by socio-economic
characteristics and status. The results of the multivariate regression indicate that
proportion of "never married" is the most important determinant of fertility for all
population groups. This finding suggests that the changing pattern of marriage in
South Africa is the major factor influencing fertility in the country. Further studies
should however describe the nature and causes of the changing patterns of marriage in
South Africa.
Another finding was that residing in urban areas is associated with lower fertility.
This is because urban areas are associated with better services (health, transport,
education, recreation, and social services), infrastructure and better living standards.
As a result, there is a need to improve services in the rural areas in order to stimulate
further decline in fertility in these areas. The other finding was that for Africans,
primary education is associated with lower fertility and this was not expected. This
therefore calls for further studies on the relationship between fertility and education
for African population. It was also found that Coloureds, Whites and Asians desire
additional children whereas the Africans desire to limit childbearing.
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