Electricity adequacy in South Africa

Abstract

The motivation to conduct this study arises from the current uncertainty of electricity security in South Africa (SA). Between the last quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008, South Africa experienced the harshest realities of inadequate electricity in its national grid. This is based on the fact that the capacity of the parastatal which controls over 96% of electricity generation could not meet the South African societal demand. This study was a holistic and comprehensive analysis of the fundamental challenges, associated with the current electricity inadequacy problems throughout four articles. An article approach was utilised. The first article assessed the effectiveness of strategic management of electricity in South Africa. The empirical research utilised a content analysis methodology. A purposeful reviewing of publications on the most critical concerns was utilised. The analysis was generated through Atlas-ti 8 for windows. The empirical research indicates that strategic management failures and the lack of an integrated strategic management approach to electricity supply and distribution have been a major stumbling block to averting an energy crisis in South Africa. The second article aimed at contributing to domestic electricity adequacy by assessing four primary factors linked to electricity consistency and analysing consumption behaviours through one primary factor, ten energy intensive domestic appliances and seven commonly used alternative domestic energy sources. The empirical research employed a quantitative survey research design. The target population included Gauteng and North West provinces. A purposive-convenience sampling was employed to select participants for the empirical research. Data collection utilised a closed-ended questionnaire and field workers to gather reliable data. Data collection on factors was collected through a five-point Likert scale and dichotomous questions while analysing consumption behaviours on appliances and alternative energy sources utilised dichotomous questions. The four primary factors linked to electricity consistency reflect that consistency of supply to domestic consumers is ineffective as living standards are affected in general. Results from appliances reflect that energy-intensive appliances are still, in general, being used by society. Beside this tendency, significantly old modelled appliances are also still in use. Despite high electrical energy use and demand, more than a third of alternative energy sources (for example, coal and wood) are used which could result in environmental and physical consequences. The third article aimed at contributing towards effective industrial electric power supply to achieve sustainable industrial and economic growth. The empirical research utilised a quantitative research design and a survey approach. The empirical research was pursued to identify the association between electricity consistency and industrial growth in South Africa. The empirical research also evaluated the effectiveness of implementing mitigation strategies to prevent interruptions and obstructions in economic activities through electricity disruptions. Intensity control programmes were also accessed, suggesting the importance of electricity control. The geographical area for the empirical included the Gauteng and North West provinces. A purposive-convenience sampling method was employed to target industrial categories reflecting a significant trend of industrial economic development in South Africa. Business categories from the service, manufacturing and mining industries were considered. Data collection utilised a closed-ended questionnaire (Likert scaled questions) and employed field workers to obtain reliable data. Results show that electrical energy is a primary production and operational factor for industrial activities. Findings also reflect that the industrial sector is vulnerable to shocks arising from the inconsistent supply. It was also found that there are limited mitigation strategies to protect the continuity of industrial activities during periods of electricity disruptions. The empirical research also revealed that there is limited electricity control as continuity of supply and efficiency are not effectively legislated. The fourth article was aimed at determining the steadfastness of the South African electricity grid in meeting consumers' current and future demands. A quantitative research design was employed. A multiple time series research method was utilised. Secondary data was retrieved for key determining variables to electricity generation from the first quarter of 1998 to the last quarter of 2015 . The £views statistical software was employed to obtain regression probabilities through the Ordinary Least Square model (OLS) specification. The Engle-Granger approach was used to establish whether co-integration exists between the independent and the dependent variables. The co-integration analysis reflects that there is a significant long-term relationship between the independent and the dependent variables. A holistic and comprehensive integrated strategic management framework for electricity adequacy has been recommended. It is hoped that the findings of this paper are used to advise energy policy legislature on priorities towards electricity supply adequacy in South Africa.