Patterns and determinants of subsequent birth amongst the ethnic groups in the black population of South Africa

Abstract

Background: Progression to the next child (subsequent birth) forms a vital part of fertility as this determines fertility behavior for women or couples. This also contributes to the country's population size, growth, and structure. Women from different population groups have different fertility behavior which affects demographic variables. In South Africa, the black population has over the years been having the highest fertility levels. In the contemporary world, fertility levels of the black population have remained the highest even though these levels were declining. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to compare and contrast fertility patterns specifically focusing on progression to the next child (subsequent birth) in different main ethnic groups within the black population in South Africa. Methods: The study focused on women aged 15-54 in the selected ethnic groups namely, Zulus, Xhosas, Sothos, Pedis and Tswanas with the total population 726 855. Fertility was measured using the Parity Progression Ratio (PPR) and the Binary Regression (Odds Ratio). These methods were used to analyze the patterns and to determine progression to the third and more children. Results: The results of this study identified that among the African ethnic groups, Zulus have more children than Sotho, Pedi, Xhosa, and Batswana. The mean parities of women in these ethnic groups rage from I to 3. Two models were used in both adjusted and unadjusted versions. In the adjusted model, most variables like the province of residence were statistically significant but on the unadjusted odds ratio some variables changed to not being statistically significant like ethnicity Conclusion: Zooming on fertility from ethnicity levels rather than population group gives more clarity on the fertility behavior of women within the black population The decision taken by a couple and women to begin their fertility and progress to the next child is influenced by various factors such as marriage type and religion. Therefore, women progressing to the next child during their childbearing ages determine how many children they would ultimately have at the end of their childbearing ages (15-49). Given the above, the study recommended that the government strengthen the policy to reduce the fertility of these ethnic groups and keep it below the replacement level.