The impact of rainfall in the North West province on the summer grain markets

Abstract

Drought has been noted as having severe impacts on the agricultural sector of South Africa. The vulnerable populations of the country are the ones that are impacted the most by the occurrence. Maize is the staple food of most individuals in the southern African region and as a result the reliance on rain-fed agriculture is tremendous. Rainfall variability in the region also has serious consequences for agriculture and for food security. The onset of a drought is generally the trigger required to cause largescale food shortages in the southern African region. The interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere have a major impact on the weather and climate. It takes several months before one big event will happen. The Ocean and the atmosphere are closely related. They are both components of the climate and together form a system called the climate system. The Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD, is one of the key drivers of Australia's climate, and there is a likelihood it has an impact on South Africa's weather as well. The Sea-surface temperature, or SST, in the Niño region in the Pacific Ocean is very crucial for determining a La Niña, El Niño of neutral conditions around the world. Sporadic rainfall in South Africa is the main reason for these cycles not to have been determined yet. Annual patterns have been identified however, where it has been established that little or no rainfall is recorded in the winter and most rain occur in the summer and mid-summer, with drought generally being prevalent during December, January, or February. New developments in the field of weather research in recent years can aid considerably in more accurate seasonal predictions. This dissertation will consider the impact of rainfall in the North West province and the impact it has on the South African summer grain markets, especially White Maize and Sunflower prices. Before the 2016/17 season, the average rainfall for the previous five seasons was only 416 mm according to data provided by the South African Weather Services, only 77% of the long-term average.