The relationship between changes in inflation and financial development

Abstract

The relationship between inflation and financial development remains an important issue in the empirical and theoretical literature, but has yet to receive significant research attention. This paper examines this issue for South Africa by applying the bounds testing (ARDL) approach to cointegration using a monthly series for the period from 2007 to 2016. The bounds tests suggest that the variables are bound together in the long run when credit allocated to the private sector is the dependent variable. The associated equilibrium correction is also significant, confirming the existence of a long-run relationship. The results indicate significant Granger and ARDL causality from inflation to the credit allocated to private sector as a measure of financial development. The empirical finding implies moderate rise in price level would motivate financial development in South Africa. Hence, the study concludes that management of financial system must be conducted in a manner that would motivate a moderate increase in price levels.