Investment potential assessment : an analysis model

Abstract

Everyday the financial world is dominated by news from the international stock markets. A general market meltdown is viewed with alarm and dismay by all those investors who take a short-term view of investments or see their pensions erode. Nothing can be done to what has already happened, but a lot can be learnt from successful investors. One of these successful investors who are one of the richest people in the world is Warren Buffett. As a student of Benjamin Graham at Columbia Business School in the 1950's and a native of Omaha, Warren Buffett is renowned as the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Incorporated and are one of the world's legendary investors. This dissertation addressed the need that exists to provide investors with an investment philosophy that will limit the risk of failure when investing in the stock market by identifying and evaluating investment potential the Warren Buffett way. The was done by a literature study of the various investment fundamentals, analyzing the investment philosophy of Warren Buffett's mentor, Benjamin Graham and a in-depth study of the investment criteria used by Warren Buffett. The empirical study was conducted in five phases. The first phase consisted of identifying the study sample and the second phase was to identify the most important regression equations. Phase three consisted of multiple regression analysis that was used to determine the most important quantitative criteria, based on the analysis done on twenty two companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The most important criteria that were identified were the margin of safety, the book value and book value per share, the intrinsic value per share of the company, the debt pay-off period and the profit margin. Based on the criteria identified within phase three, a five step model was developed in phase four to assist investors in analyzing and successfully identifying companies with the highest investment potential and this model was tested in phase five. The results of the tests done on the study sample indicated the success rate of the model for the specific number of criteria. These results were compared to the average price per share for 2004 and the results indicated that the success rate of the model decreases as the number of criteria within the model decreases. The results achieved were satisfactory considering that the model only addresses the quantitative investment criteria and not the qualitative criteria within the model decreases. The results achieved were satisfactory considering that the model only addresses the quantitative investment criteria and not the qualitative criteria.