Applying systems thinking in shaping South Africa's electricity system

Abstract

The paper analyses the current situation in respect of South Africa's electricity situation and asks the question if Systems Thinking, more specifically as it pertains to the theory of Complex Adaptive Systems, would make a contribution to improved Electrical Energy decision making. The authors applied a specific branch of Complex Adaptive Systems (namely “edge of chaos” theory) by following an example based argumentative approach in their research. This led to the following observations:

Information in respect of Electrical Energy and South Africa's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as presented in the National Development Plan, Integrated Energy Plan and Integrated Resource Plan appears to be inconsistent. The sensitivity of Energy Intensity, the (lack of) accuracy with which it can be forecasted, and its alignment with expected growth sectors in the South African economy should be well understood and carefully monitored in shaping the future of the country's Electricity System. The paper concludes that the mental framework which Systems Thinking provides, and specifically the theory which explains the behavior of Complex Adaptive Systems, could make a positive contribution towards achieving quicker coherence in respect of South Africa's future Electricity System. Furthermore that such coherence will lead to quicker emergence of the single most important characteristic of the “RSA (Incorporated) system” - its economic growth