An analysis of the risk free rate in the South African capital market

Abstract

The current research was undertaken to assess if the prices in the South African capital market imply a risk free rate that is not equal to the theoretical risk free rate. The research was conducted by means of a literature review and desktop-research-based analysis of the market price based yield curve. The literature review was conducted to establish the importance of the risk free rate in the financial systems dynamics. The literature review highlighted that all the portfolio theories and performance-measure indicators have the risk free rate at the core of their methodology. This implies that the risk free rate is the most important concept that determines the market demand of different instruments. Next, a comparison has been drawn between the BESA published bond yield curve and a market-price-based yield curve developed by the researcher. The findings establish that the market price derived risk free rate is higher than the theoretical risk free rate. It was also found that the shape of the yield curve is different from the BESA projected yield curve, and that it is indicative of future problems in the South African capital market. The implications of investors‟ perceptions of the higher risk free rate are discussed and it is revealed that the foreign investors consider the country risk and the default risk associated with the South African government as higher than the BESA may perceive it to be.