Looking for an offshore low-level jet champion among recent reanalyses: a tight race over the Baltic Sea

Abstract

With an increasing interest in offshore wind energy, focus has been directed towards large semi-enclosed basins such as the Baltic Sea as potential sites to set up wind turbines. The meteorology of this inland sea in particular is strongly affected by the surrounding land, creating mesoscale conditions that are important to take into consideration when planning for new wind farms. This paper presents a comparison between data from four state-of-the-art reanalyses (MERRA2, ERA5, UERRA, NEWA) and observations from LiDAR. The comparison is made for four sites in the Baltic Sea with wind profiles up to 300 m. The findings provide insight into the accuracy of reanalyses for wind resource assessment. In general, the reanalyses underestimate the average wind speed. The average shear is too low in NEWA, while ERA5 and UERRA predominantly overestimate the shear. MERRA2 suffers from insufficient vertical resolution, which limits its usefulness in evaluating the wind profile. It is also shown that low-level jets, a very frequent mesoscale phenomenon in the Baltic Sea during late spring, can appear in a wide range of wind speeds. The observed frequency of low-level jets is best captured by UERRA. In terms of general wind characteristics, ERA5, UERRA, and NEWA are similar, and the best choice depends on the application