Die identifisering van realistiese bilaterale uitvoergeleenthede vir Suid-Afrika en China: ʼn Besluitondersteuningsmodel

Abstract

South Africa and China have a long-standing, unique trade relationship. Since 2009, China has been South Africa’s largest trade partner. South Africa primarily depends on the export of commodities. Traditionally, China’s demand for commodities sustained its production-driven economy, but China also wanted a market for the products it produced. Africa, and specifically South Africa, provided these markets. More recently, in 2012, China began restructuring its economy, which brought about a shift in focus from manufacturing to services. At the same time, a trade war between China and the United States of America is looming. Both South Africa and China will therefore benefit from a more diversified and well-developed trade relationship. The purpose of this study is to identify realistic bilateral export opportunities for South Africa and China so that both South Africa and China can focus their national export policy optimally. In the literature the need for participation in international trade is emphasised. Furthermore, the bilateral and multilateral trade agreements to which South Africa and China are signatories, as well as their national policies aimed at promoting trade between them, are investigated. It is also shown that the biggest challenge in promoting mutual trade is identifying products and markets for both South Africa and China. In order to address this challenge, the TRADE-DSM® method is used to identify realistic export opportunities for South Africa and China. The TRADE-DSM® uses four filter groups to identify markets and products that match optimally. The first filter group removes markets with high political and commercial risk. In the second filter group, the short- and long-term import growth rates of China and South Africa, as well as the size of their import markets for the products concerned, are evaluated. The accessibility of markets in South Africa for Chinese products and for South African products in China is considered in filter group 3. Finally, the export opportunities are categorised. The DSM identifies 444 realistic opportunities, with a potential value of 18,5 billion USD, for export from South Africa to China, and 494 realistic opportunities, with a potential value of 547 million USD, for export from China to South Africa. It is ecommended that strategic export promotion be focused on products for which both South Africa and China already hold a relatively large market share in each other’s import market.